Amakimbirane yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati yahungabanyije inganda za ethylene; umusaruro ku isi ushobora kugabanukaho toni zisaga miliyoni 22 muri 2026

Walter Hart, Umuyobozi Mukuru wa Olefins ku Isi muri S&P Global Energy CERA, yavuze mu Nama Mpuzamahanga ya Petrochemical ko gufunga burundu Strait of Hormuz bizagira ingaruka zikomeye ku bahanga ba peteroli bo muri Aziya. Imashini zikora ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati zizahatirwa gufungwa, mu gihe izindi nganda zo muri Aziya zizagabanya imirimo yazo kubera ibura ry’ibiryo by’ibiribwa.Umusaruro wa ethylene ku isi mu 2026 witezwe kugabanukaho toni miliyoni 22, bingana na 12% by'umusaruro wo mu 2025.

Ubushyamirane mu bya gisirikare mu kigobe bwahungabanyije ibiribwa bikomoka kuri peteroli. Toni miliyoni 29 z'ubushobozi bwa ethylene buri mwaka mu karere ka kigobe ubu ntabwo zikora, aho muri Irani, Koweti na Katari, n'izindi nganda zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati zikora hafi igiciro gito cyane. Ibi byamaze kugabanya umusaruro wa ethylene ho toni miliyoni 15.

Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati bufite ubushobozi bwa ethylene bugera kuri toni miliyoni 35, muri zo hafi toni miliyoni 6 ziherereye hanze y'ikigobe cya Perse. Ibi bitumaToni miliyoni 29 z'ubushobozi bwa ethylene ikomoka mu kigobe cy'inyanja zagaragaye mu buryo butaziguyegutanga ibibazo byahungabanyije umutekano.

Ihindagurika ry’ibicuruzwa ryakwirakwiriye kure cyane mu karere k’inyanja ya Gulf. Ibura ry’ibiryo bya naphtha n’ibikomoka ku mavuta byatumye ibigo by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri Aziya bigabanya igipimo cyo kubikoresha. Hart yagize ati: “Igice kirenga kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibicuruzwa ku isi cyagizweho ingaruka.” Uretse toni miliyoni 29 zahungabanye mu karere k’inyanja, igabanuka ry’ibiryo byageze ku toni miliyoni 105 z’ibikomoka kuri ethylene muri Aziya.

Hart ateganya ko hatabariwemo akarere ka GulfToni miliyoni 7–8 z'umusaruro wa ethylene ku isibizabura uyu mwaka bitewe n’ubwoko bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu ruganda. Amakuru agaragaza ko umusaruro wa ethylene ku isi wageze kuri toni miliyoni 185 mu 2025, hamwe n’ubushobozi bwose hamwe bukaba toni miliyoni 232.

Amakimbirane yahungabanyije cyane ibicuruzwa byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati bya polyethylene (PE) na ethylene glycol (EG) byoherezwaga muri Aziya, bituma imiyoboro y’ibikoresho bya polyolefin, polyester na PET izenguruka.

Biteganijwe ko icyifuzo cya ethylene mu gihe kirekire kiziyongera, nubwo kigenda buhoro. Hart ateganya ko igipimo cy’imikorere n’inyungu bitazongera kuzamuka neza kugeza mu ntangiriro kugeza hagati mu myaka ya 2030, ubwo icyifuzo kizaba gikomeje kwiyongera hamwe n’ubushobozi bushya.