Akarere kazaba gafite umubare munini w’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga muri 2024 ni Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba, bityo Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba ni yo iza imbere mu 2025. Mu rwego rwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga mu karere muri 2024, umwanya wa mbere wa LLDPE, LDPE, PP, na block copolymerization ni Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba, mu yandi magambo, ahantu 4 muri 6 by’ingenzi by’ibicuruzwa bya polyolefin bijyanwa mu mahanga ni Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba.
Ibyiza: Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba ni agace k'amazi n'Ubushinwa kandi gafite amateka maremare y'ubufatanye. Mu 1976, ASEAN yasinye Amasezerano y'Ubumwe n'Ubutwererane muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba kugira ngo iteze imbere amahoro arambye, ubucuti n'ubufatanye hagati y'ibihugu byo mu karere, maze Ubushinwa bwinjiye ku mugaragaro muri ayo Masezerano ku ya 8 Ukwakira 2003. Umubano mwiza washinze urufatiro rw'ubucuruzi. Icya kabiri, muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba mu myaka ya vuba aha, usibye Vietnam Longshan Petrochemical, inganda nke nini za polyolefin zashyizwe mu musaruro, kandi byitezwe ko zizakomeza kuba nke mu myaka mike iri imbere, ibi bigabanya impungenge z'ibicuruzwa, kandi icyuho cy'ubusabe bwabyo kizahoraho igihe kirekire. Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba nayo ni agace gakunzwe cyane mu kongera ibicuruzwa by'abacuruzi b'Abashinwa byoherezwa mu mahanga, hamwe n'ituze ryiza.
Ingaruka mbi: Nubwo Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba ifitanye umubano mwiza n'Ubushinwa muri rusange, amakimbirane mato yo mu karere aracyari ngombwa. Mu myaka myinshi ishize, Ubushinwa bwiyemeje guteza imbere Amategeko Ngengamyitwarire mu Nyanja y'Amajyepfo y'Ubushinwa kugira ngo inyungu rusange z'impande zose zihuzwe. Icya kabiri, kurengera ubucuruzi biri kwiyongera hirya no hino ku isi, nko muri Indoneziya mu ntangiriro z'Ukuboza yatangiye iperereza ryo kurwanya ijugunywa ry'ibicuruzwa bikomoka muri Arabie Sawudite, Filipine, Koreya y'Epfo, Maleziya, Ubushinwa, Singapuru, Tayilande na Vietnam. Iki gikorwa, kigamije kurinda amasosiyete yo mu gihugu no ku busabe bw'amasosiyete yo mu gihugu, ntikireba Ubushinwa bwonyine, ahubwo kireba ibihugu by'ingenzi bitumiza ibicuruzwa. Nubwo kidashobora gukumira burundu icuruzwa ry'ibicuruzwa biva mu gihugu, ni ngombwa ko ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa biva mu gihugu bizagabanuka ku rugero runaka, kandi Ubushinwa bukwiye kandi kuba maso ku iperereza ryo kurwanya ijugunywa ry'ibicuruzwa biva mu gihugu muri Indoneziya mu 2025.
Twavuze haruguru ko ibintu bine muri bitandatu bya mbere by’ibicuruzwa bya polyolefin byigaruriwe n’Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba, mu gihe ibindi bibiri bisigaye biza ku mwanya wa mbere ari Afurika, igihugu gifite umubare munini w’ibicuruzwa bya HDPE byoherezwa mu mahanga, n’Aziya y’Amajyaruguru y’Uburasirazuba, igihugu gifite umubare munini w’ibindi bicuruzwa bya PP byoherezwa mu mahanga. Ariko, ugereranije n’Aziya y’Amajyaruguru y’Uburasirazuba, Afurika iza ku mwanya wa kabiri wa LDPE na block copolymerization. Bityo, abanditsi bashyize Afurika ku mwanya wa kabiri ku rutonde rw’ibice by’ingenzi.
Ibyiza: Birazwi ko Ubushinwa bufite ubufatanye bukomeye na Afurika, kandi bwagiye bufasha Afurika kenshi. Ubushinwa na Afurika babyita ubufatanye busesuye bw’ingamba, bufite ishingiro rikomeye ry’ubucuti. Nkuko byavuzwe haruguru, kurengera ubucuruzi biri kwiyongera ku isi yose, kuri ubu, birashoboka cyane ko Afurika itazakurikiza umuvuduko w’Uburengerazuba mu gufata ingamba nk’izo ku Bushinwa, kandi ku bijyanye n’imiterere y’ibicuruzwa byayo n’ibikenewe, ntabwo ishyigikira ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’izo ngamba muri iki gihe. Ubushobozi bwa Afurika bwo gukora polypropylene buhagaze kuri toni miliyoni 2.21 ku mwaka, harimo n’uruganda rwa Nijeriya rukora toni 830.000 ku mwaka. Ubushobozi bwa polyethylene bugera kuri toni miliyoni 1.8 ku mwaka, muri zo HDPE igera kuri toni 838.000 ku mwaka. Ugereranyije n'uko ibintu bimeze muri Indoneziya, ubushobozi bwa Afurika bwo gukora PP bukubye inshuro 2.36 gusa ugereranyije n'ubwa Indoneziya, ariko abaturage bayo bakubye inshuro zigera kuri 5 ugereranyije n'ubwa Indoneziya, ariko ni ngombwa kuvuga ko igipimo cy'ubukene muri Afurika kiri hejuru ugereranyije na Indoneziya, kandi ingufu zikoreshwa ziragabanuka. Ariko mu gihe kirekire, biracyari isoko rifite ubushobozi bwinshi.
Ingaruka mbi: Inganda z'amabanki muri Afurika ntizatera imbere, kandi uburyo bwo kwishyurana ni buke. Buri gihe hari impande ebyiri kuri buri giceri, kandi ibyiza bya Afurika ni n'ingaruka mbi zayo, kuko ubushobozi bw'ejo hazaza buracyakeneye igihe kugira ngo bugaragare, ariko icyifuzo kirimo kiracyari gito, nk'uko byavuzwe haruguru haracyari imbaraga nke zo gukoresha. Kandi Afurika itumiza byinshi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, bigatuma igihugu cyacu kigira amahirwe make. Icya kabiri, kubera ubushobozi buke bwa Afurika bwo guhangana n'imyanda ya pulasitiki, mu myaka yashize, ibihugu byinshi byashyizeho amategeko n'amabwiriza yo guhagarika ikoreshwa rya pulasitiki. Kuri ubu, ibihugu 34 byashyizeho itegeko ryo guhagarika ikoreshwa rimwe ry'amashashi ya pulasitiki.
Muri Amerika y'Epfo, Ubushinwa bwohereza cyane cyane polypropylene, mu buryo bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu Ukwakira uyu mwaka, Amerika y'Epfo iri ku mwanya wa kabiri mu byoherezwa mu mahanga by'ibanze bya PP, ku mwanya wa gatatu mu bindi bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya PP, no ku mwanya wa gatatu mu byoherezwa mu mahanga bya block copolymerization. Mu byoherezwa mu mahanga bya polypropylene biri mu bitatu bya mbere. Bigaragara ko Amerika y'Epfo ifite umwanya mu byoherezwa mu mahanga bya polypropylene mu Bushinwa.
Ibyiza: Ibihugu byo muri Amerika y'Epfo n'Ubushinwa nta kuvuguruzanya gukomeye bifite mu mateka, Ubushinwa na Brezili mu buhinzi n'ubufatanye mu ngufu zitangiza ibidukikije buri hafi cyane, umufatanyabikorwa mukuru wa Amerika y'Epfo, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kuva Trump yajya ku butegetsi, yashyizeho imisoro ku bicuruzwa ku isi, na byo byateje ikibazo mu bucuruzi bwa Amerika y'Epfo mu bucuruzi bwayo. Ingamba z'ibihugu byo muri Amerika y'Epfo zo gukorana n'igihugu cyacu nazo ziyongera umunsi ku wundi. Icya kabiri, igiciro mpuzandengo ku isoko muri Amerika y'Epfo kiri hejuru y'igiciro mpuzandengo ku isoko mu gihugu cyacu igihe kirekire, kandi hari amahirwe menshi yo gukoresha amasosiyete y'ubucuruzi mu karere hamwe n'inyungu nyinshi.
Ingaruka mbi: Kimwe na Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba, Amerika y'Epfo nayo ifite uburyo bwo kurengera ubucuruzi, kandi uyu mwaka Brezili yafashe iya mbere mu gushyira mu bikorwa imisoro kuri polyolefini itumizwa mu mahanga kuva kuri 12.6% kugeza kuri 20%. Intego ya Brezili ni imwe n'iya Indoneziya, yo kurinda inganda zayo. Icya kabiri, Ubushinwa na Brezili, iburasirazuba n'iburengerazuba ndetse n'igice cy'amajyaruguru n'amajyepfo by'ubwato bubiri burebure, urugendo rurerure, n'urugendo rurerure. Ubusanzwe bifata iminsi 25-30 kuva ku nkombe y'iburengerazuba ya Amerika y'Epfo kugera mu Bushinwa, n'iminsi 30-35 kuva ku nkombe y'iburasirazuba ya Amerika y'Epfo kugera mu Bushinwa. Kubwibyo, urwego rwo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga rugizweho ingaruka cyane n'imizigo yo mu mazi. Irushanwa rirakomeye kimwe, riyobowe na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Kanada, hagakurikiraho Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati na Koreya y'Epfo.
Nubwo abanditsi bagaragaza imbaraga n'intege nke z'uturere tw’ingenzi twohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, baracyagaragaza ko ari two dufite icyizere cy’iterambere. Impamvu imwe y'ingenzi ishingiye ku makuru y’amateka yo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga yo mu mwaka ushize ndetse no mu myaka ya vuba aha. Amakuru y’ibanze, ku rugero runaka, agaragaza ko ibintu byabayeho, kandi mu by’ukuri ni inzira ndende kugira ngo impinduka z’ingenzi zibeho. Niba ibintu bigomba guhinduka mu gihe gito, umwanditsi yizera ko ibi bikurikira bigomba kubahirizwa:
1) Amakimbirane akomeye mu karere, harimo ariko atari byo gusa, intambara ishyushye, kwiyongera k’ubwigunge mu bucuruzi n’izindi ngamba zikomeye.
2) Impinduka nini mu itangwa ry’ibicuruzwa mu karere zizahindura isura y’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe, ariko ibi ntibishobora kurangizwa mu gihe gito. Ubusanzwe bifata igihe kirekire kuva ku itangira ry’ibicuruzwa kugeza ku isoko ryuzuye.
3) Kurengera ubucuruzi n'imbogamizi ku misoro bigamije gusa Ubushinwa. Bitandukanye n'ingamba zo muri Indoneziya na Brezili, niba imisoro igamije cyane ibicuruzwa by'Ubushinwa gusa, aho kwibanda ku bicuruzwa byose bitumizwa mu mahanga, nk'uko Indoneziya na Brezili byabigenje muri uyu mwaka, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by'Ubushinwa bizahura n'ikibazo gikomeye, kandi ibicuruzwa bizajya byimurirwa mu turere dutandukanye.
Ibi bintu mu by’ukuri ni byo bibazo bikomeye ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga muri iki gihe. Nubwo ibi bintu byavuzwe haruguru bitaragerwaho neza muri iki gihe, ubufatanye mpuzamahanga buracyafitanye isano kandi bugomba gukoreshwa mu byerekezo bitandukanye. Ariko uburyo bwo kurengera ubucuruzi n’amakimbirane yo mu turere byarushijeho kwiyongera mu myaka ya vuba aha. Kubungabunga no guteza imbere ibikorwa byo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bigomba gukurikiranirwa hafi ku iterambere n’amahirwe yo mu tundi turere.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukuboza-20-2024